Global port activity is under pressure due to heightened trade tensions and a slowing global economic growth, Fitch Ratings says in a new report. The impact on global port sector credit is expected to be muted due to contractual and financial features that mitigate volume and revenue pressures.

Port ratings have remained resilient during previous periods of volume declines, with revenues typically outperforming volumes due to contractual revenue buffers, stable revenues and rate flexibility. Nevertheless, a heightened, prolonged trade war could lead to a material erosion in volumes, which could place greater pressure on revenues and credit quality.

Tariff pressures on ports are compounded by declining goods demand amid an economic slowdown. Fitch forecasts global growth to slow to 1.9% in 2025, from 2.9% in 2024. This assumes that the U.S. effective tariff rate (ETR) on China remains above 100% for some time, before decreasing to 60% in 2026, while the ETR on other trade partners is 15%.

Global port ratings range from ‘AA’ to ‘B’, with most investment grade. Highly rated ports are generally diversified across cargo types, business segments, or clients, and possess strong revenue profiles, leverage profiles, and structural debt protections, or government support.

The Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach, both rated ‘AA’/Stable, are amongst the most vulnerable to U.S.-China tariffs, but have strong financial cushions to weather a severe decline in shipping related revenue this year.

Fitch-rated Chinese ports benefit from implicit government support, insulating them from trade volatility. Other Asian ports may see increased trade and transshipment volumes as cargo is rerouted and supply chains reconfigured.

Some port volume losses due to reduced trade with the U.S. will be compensated by increased trade with other countries. Latin America ports have diverse trading partners, and Fitch-rated European ports’ trade volume exposure to the U.S. is below10%.
Source: Fitch Ratings