Crude Oil Price Movements
In May, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value declined by $5.36, or 7.8%, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $63.62/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract declined by $2.45, or 3.7%, m-o-m, to average $64.01/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract declined by $2.02, or 3.2%, m-o-m, to average $60.94/b. GME Oman’s front-month contract declined by $3.97, or 5.9%, m-o-m, to average $63.88/b. Meanwhile, the ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI first-month spread contracted by 43¢, m-o-m, to average $3.07/b. The ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, and GME Oman forward curves flattened in May compared to the previous month, but remained in backwardation. Speculative activities displayed mixed trends in the two major futures and options contracts, ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI.
World Economy
The global economy maintained a stable growth trajectory, supported by healthy 1Q25 growth and tentative progress in US trade negotiations. The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 2.9% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. The US economic growth forecasts remain at 1.7% for 2025 and 2.1% for 2026. Japan’s economic forecasts remain at 1.0% for 2025 and 0.9% for 2026. Eurozone economic growth forecasts remain at 1.0% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026. China’s economic growth forecasts remain at 4.6% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026. Following strong growth in 1Q25, India’s economic growth forecast for 2025 is revised up slightly to 6.5%, the same level as anticipated for 2026. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.3% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026. Russia’s 2025 economic growth forecast is revised down slightly to 1.8%, but remains unchanged at 1.5% for 2026.
World Oil Demand
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at 1.3 mb/d, year-on-year (y-o-y), unchanged from last month’s assessment. Some minor adjustments were made mainly to actual data for 1Q25. In the OECD, oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.2 mb/d in 2025, while non-OECD demand is forecast to grow by more than 1.1 mb/d in 2025. In 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.3 mb/d y-o-y, also unchanged from last month’s assessments, with the OECD forecast to grow by around 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.
World Oil Supply
Non-DoC liquids supply (i.e., liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.8 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. The non-DoC liquids supply growth forecast for 2026 is revised slightly down to 0.7 mb/d, with US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina as the main growth drivers. Meanwhile, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, averaging 8.4 mb/d, followed by a similar increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average 8.5 mb/d. Crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by 180 tb/d in May, m-o-m, to average about 41.23 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In May, refinery margins rose in all reported trading hubs, amid a decline in feedstock prices and continued strength in gasoline across regions. In the US Gulf Coast (USGC), regular grade gasoline and fuel oil 3.0% sulphur showed a seasonal improvement, despite rising refinery runs, which weighed on the performance of all other products. In Rotterdam, solid strength was seen across the barrel with gasoline, fuel oil and naphtha representing the main drivers for the monthly gain. In Singapore, margins increased as all products saw considerable gains. Significant refinery maintenance led to a contraction in product availability in Asia, which, coupled with lower feedstock prices, supported refining economics in the region. Global refinery intake rebounded in May, increasing by nearly 400 tb/d, m-o-m, to stand at 79.3 mb/d, which is 1.6 mb/d lower, y-o-y.
Tanker Market Dirty tanker spot freight rates saw mixed movements in May, compared to the previous month. VLCC rates were flat to slightly lower, m-o-m, while Aframax and Suezmax rates experienced declines. On the Middle East-toWest and West Africa-to-East routes, VLCC spot rates remained unchanged, m-o-m, while rates on the Middle East-to-East route slipped by 2%. Ample availability, combined with limited long-haul demand, eased market sentiment over most of the month. Suezmax spot freight rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route fell by 22%, m-o-m, amid limited enquiries. In the Aframax market, spot freight rates on the Mediterranean-to-Northwest Europe route dropped by 20%, m-o-m, weighed down by softening supply-demand fundamentals. Spot rates in the clean tanker market were also mixed. East of Suez rates rose by 4%, m-o-m, as tonnage lists tightened, while thin enquiries caused West of Suez rates to decline by 9%, m-o-m.
Crude and Refined Product Trade
In May, US crude imports rose by 5%, m-o-m, to average 6.1 mb/d, while US crude exports fell by 8%, m-o-m, to average 3.8 mb/d. US product imports increased by 6%, m-o-m, while US product exports rose by 4%, m-o-m. Preliminary estimates indicate that OECD Europe’s crude imports declined, m-o-m, in April, amid lower inflows from Kazakhstan and Nigeria. Product imports into OECD Europe rose by about 14%, m-o-m, in April, led by higher inflows of fuel oil. The latest official data for Japan shows crude imports remained relatively steady in April, m-o-m, at 2.5 mb/d, while product imports fell by nearly 20%, m-o-m, due to a sharp drop in LPG inflows. Japan’s product exports partly recovered in April, driven by higher outflows of gasoil and jet fuel. China’s crude imports declined in April, m-o-m, to average 11.7 mb/d. Preliminary May data shows a further decline to average 11.0 mb/d. China’s product imports surged by 18%, m-o-m, in April, driven by a recovery in fuel oil and further supported by LPG. Product exports from China slipped by about 2% from the previous month’s levels, as declines in diesel and gasoline outweighed gains in jet fuel and fuel oil. India’s crude imports in April fell, m-o-m, averaging 5.2 mb/d. Product imports declined by 7%, m-o-m, due to lower LPG inflows, while product exports slumped by nearly 29%, m-o-m, amid lower outflows of gasoline and diesel.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories stood at 2,739 mb in April, representing a m-o-m increase of 4.7 mb. Within the components, crude stocks rose by 7.2 mb, m-o-m, while product stocks declined by 2.5 mb, m-o-m. Compared to the 2015–2019 average, OECD commercial oil stocks were 188 mb lower. OECD commercial crude stocks stood at 1,344 mb, which is 129 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Total OECD product stocks stood at 1,395 mb, or 59 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 0.4 days, m-o-m, to 59.7 days in April, which is 2.5 days below the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is revised upward by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month, reaching 42.7 mb/d in 2025. This represents an increase of approximately 0.4 mb/d compared to the 2024 estimate. Demand for DoC crude in 2026 is also revised upward by 0.2 mb/d from the previous month, reaching 43.2 mb/d or about 0.4 mb/d higher than the 2025 projection.
Source: OPEC