The latest edition of Westwood's World Land Drilling Rig Market Forecast presents a broadly positive picture for the land rig market over the next five years, with continued strong activity in several key regions, including Asia, the Middle East and North America.
Rig demand is forecast to average 4,704 between 2025 and 2029, which is an uplift of 18% on the hindcast average. Global demand is forecast to be led by Asia Pacific (36%), with China continuing to be the largest country for rig demand, as it was in the hindcast period. Eastern Europe, whose demand outlook is driven by Russia, follows at 27%, with North America third at 17%.
From a supply standpoint, North America has the largest fleet. However, this is chronically underutilised, with many rigs being cold stacked for multiple years. This reflects a step change in rig demand in the Lower-48 where operator consolidation, strict capital discipline and a drive to increase the production rate of each well drilled have fundamentally changed the US rig market, leaving significantly more rigs available than are in demand. As a result, utilisation is expected to average just 33%, significantly below Asia Pacific (76%) and Eastern Europe & FSU (63%). This low utilisation is also expected to spur rig contractors to relocate part of their fleets into other markets, something that has been a growing trend in the last couple of years.
Average Rig Supply, Demand and Utilisation by Region 2025-2029
Source: Westwood World Land Drilling Rig Market Forecast 2025-2029
72% of forecast rig demand is expected to come from just four countries: Canada, China, Russia and the US. Importantly, however, these are not necessarily growth markets for rig contractors, offering limited expansion opportunities. China is well served by domestic land rig contractors, led by NOCs CNPC and Sinopec, who have the two largest rig fleets globally at c. 1,100 and c. 650, respectively. Russia, meanwhile, remains under heavy sanctions, limiting international contractors' ability to operate in the country.
As a result, Westwood's latest report identifies a number of countries outside of the big four with major growth opportunities – including several that are progressing unconventional developments, offering a major opportunity for rig contractors to relocate idled super-spec rigs in the USA into new markets. These markets include Argentina and Australia, two countries which are expected to see forecast activity massively outperform the hindcast, fuelled by investment into unconventional projects.
The MENA region is another spot with major growth potential and is expected to see an average rig demand of 680 rigs over the forecast, a 31% increase on the hindcast (the largest growth globally). Along with increased conventional oil drilling in places such as Algeria, Kuwait and Turkey, new opportunities are emerging in unconventional developments, led by efforts in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The report presents Westwood's in-depth outlook for the global land drilling rig market over the 2025-2029 period, with a focus on addressing the following key questions:
- What macro fundamentals are driving rig demand and utilisation on both a global and country level scale?
- What is the volume of operational rigs and rig utilisation across different regions and countries?
- What countries are expected to see the largest growth over the forecast?
- What key factors are worth highlighting within specific countries or regions – basins, plays, E&P companies, national production targets?
- What is the competitive landscape within specific markets – key rig contractors, their fleet size and horsepower distribution?
- What is the range of dayrates for rig fleets in different HP categories and in different geographies?
Source: Westwood Global Energy Group