Dutch and British wholesale gas prices rose on Monday morning, amid ongoing uncertainty over gas flows, colder weather forecast for the end of the month and small delays to Norwegian maintenance outages.
The benchmark front-month contract TRNLTTFMc1 at the Dutch TTF hub was up 1.03 euros at 35.47 euros per megawatt hour (MWH), or $11.51 mmBtu, by 0949 GMT, LSEG data showed.
In the British market, the day-ahead contract TRGBNBPD1 rose by 1.25 pence to 84.50 pence per therm, while the front month TRGBNBPMc1 gained 2.46 pence to 85.26 p/therm.
Fears that an escalations of the Middle Eastern conflict could see attacks launched in multiple regions and impact gas supplies were sparking uncertainty in the gas and power markets, analysts at Northern Gas and Power said in a report.
“Further support to the month-ahead contracts comes as attacks continue on the Russia-Ukraine border close to energy infrastructure, though the energy infrastructure remains unharmed,” they added.
“Traders also remain on edge regarding supplies via Ukraine, with a deal to transport Russian gas set to expire at the end of the year,” Daniel Hynes, senior commodities strategist at ANZ said.
A report that Ukraine made a temporary agreement to transit Azerbaijani gas to Europe sent prices briefly tumbling on Thursday but have risen since as officials in both countries denied such a deal had been struck.
For now, the transit of Russian gas remains steady with Russia’s Gazprom GAZP.MM saying it would send 42 million cubic metres (mcm) of gas to Europe via Ukraine on Monday, the same as on Sunday.
Norwegian piped gas deliveries to Europe and Britain are nominated at 279 mcm/day, up from 245 mcm/day on Friday, but some maintenance work at the Skarv and Sleipner fields has been extended, data from system operator Gassco showed.
Prices are also supported by the outlook for colder temperatures from now until the end of the month, lifting demand, analysts said.
European gas storage was last seen at 93.63% full, Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data showed.
In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract CFI2Zc1 was 1.27 euros higher at 64.66 euros per metric ton.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Nora Buli in Oslo; editing by Nina Chestney)