In a week marked by significant political developments in the U.S., market sentiment responded with surprising optimism, pushing indices higher. The UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.03% to close at 154.17 points.
This optimism was evident in the performance of UPI constituents. Strong trading volumes, particularly in the U.S. and Japan, propelled several companies to double-digit gains. Golar LNG led the surge with a 21.4% increase, followed by Tsakos Energy Navigation, Cool Company, and Flex LNG. Meanwhile, Japanese LNG stocks rebounded from early losses, ending modestly higher. However, not all fared well—Capital Clean Energy Carriers and major gas-oil firms like BP and Chevron saw notable declines.
UPI & SPX
The UP World LNG Shipping Index, which tracks listed LNG shipping companies, gained 4.54 points (3.03%), closing at 154.17 points, while the S&P 500 index gained by 5.70%. The chart below illustrates the performance of both indices with weekly data.
Week 15-2025: Chart of the UP World LNG Shipping Index with S&P 500 (Source: UP-Indices)
Broader view
The past week has brought the most dramatic changes in the new US administration’s attitudes yet. This, of course, brought with it unprecedented volatility and confusion, which is probably the goal of these beautiful manoeuvres. Nevertheless, the markets were captivated by the fact that the latest decision was positive for them and ended the week higher.
LNG flows will change depending on how the tariff situation plays out, but consumption will remain the same and continue to grow. Therefore, despite the uncertainty, we maintain a positive outlook.
Constituents
We have called this commentary a week of returns, describing what is happening on stock markets and trading tariffs. After negative openings, there may have been too much growth, but that matter will be confirmed or not in the short term. What is important is the strong growth in trading volume, which has reached a level where it has only been six times in the history of the UPI. Most of the above-average volume has been in the US and Japan. Price movements matched the volume, with four American-listed companies achieving double-digit gains.
Golar LNG (NYQ: GLNG) added the most, 21.4%, followed by Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYQ: TEN), which rose 15.6%.
Cool Company (NYQ/OSE: CLCO) was third in growth with a 12 per cent increase, and Flex LNG (NYQ/OSE: FLNG) was fourth with a 10 per cent increase. Due to the weakening dollar, both CLCO and FLNG will see higher growth in the US than in the Norwegian stock market. This could be an interesting feature, especially if FLNG rethinks its withdrawal from the OSE due to unexpected developments.
New Fortress Energy (NYQ: NFE) rose 8.1% and Excelerate Energy (NYQ: EE) added 5.5%. Awilco LNG (OSE: ALNG) ended a volatile week with a five per cent gain.
Although Japanese stocks achieved above-average volumes, it was a weak week on a percentage basis. But let’s make no mistake! The small weekly result hides a big weekly move as Japanese stocks opened with a negative gap. As a result, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (TSE: 9104), “K” Line (TSE: 9107), and NYK Line (TSE: 9101) returned to previous levels and ended the week up 3.8%, 2.5%, and 1.2%, respectively. Incidentally, Nakilat (QSE: QGTS) was similarly up 0.3%.
The most significant decline befell Capital Clean Energy Carriers (NYQ: CCEC), which lost seven per cent. That may speak to a good outcome, as its price was down to early 2024, which would be a loss of over twenty per cent.
The gas-oil trio did not fare as well. BP (NYQ: BP) wrote off 6.3 per cent, Chevron (NYQ: CVX) fell 5.3 per cent, and Shell (NYQ: SHEL) lost 3.2 per cent.
Dynagas LNG Partners (NYQ: DLNG) dropped 3.1% below last year’s support but not to the bottom. It is in a low-volume area, as the only value traded (in this move) was last April’s doji.
Crystal Ball
Despite the growing global uncertainty caused by the US administration, our outlook remains cautiously optimistic. However, we expect increased volatility in the coming weeks. LNG spot rates stayed low, but the impact remains marginal for most UPI constituents. The market is watching for potential breakouts at key resistance levels, which could determine the next price direction.
Our outlook remains steadfastly positive in the long term. The burgeoning demand for LNG, bolstered by situational or management-driven actions and the potential for new long-term contracts, paints a promising picture. Investors should watch policy developments, market competition, and upcoming corporate earnings for further direction.
Source: UP-Indices.com