•    Oil futures escalated in August on rising geopolitical tensions over Syria’s suspected use of chemical weapons and the near total shut-in of Libyan production. Prices turned lower in early-September as a Russian proposal for Syria to surrender its chemical weapons gained traction. Brent was last trading at $111.60/bbl, WTI at $107.50/bbl.
•    The forecast of global demand growth remains flat at 895 kb/d for 2013, as stronger–than-expected deliveries in July offset concerns about the demand impact of currency fluctuations in emerging market economies. Demand growth is forecast to rise to 1.1 mb/d in 2014, as the underlying macroeconomic backdrop solidifies.
•    Global supply is estimated to have fallen by 770 kb/d in August to 91.59 mb/d, with both non-OPEC and OPEC registering monthly declines. In 3Q13 non-OPEC production is expected to rise by 520 kb/d q-o-q as a seasonal decline in the North Sea is more than made up for by North American growth and steady production elsewhere.
•    OPEC crude supplies fell by 260 kb/d to 30.51 mb/d in August as near-record Saudi output only partly offset a collapse in Libyan production. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ was raised by 200 kb/d on higher demand for 3Q13 but lowered by 100 kb/d for 4Q13, to 30.3 mb/d and 29.6 mb/d, respectively.
•    OECD commercial total oil stocks built by a weak 8.0 mb to 2 659 mb in July, bringing their deficit to the five-year average to 65 mb, its widest in two years. Refined products covered 30.7 days of forward demand, a rise of 0.6 day on end-June. Preliminary data indicate OECD inventories drew counter-seasonally by 14.2 mb in August.
•    Global refinery crude runs reached a seasonal peak in July, at an estimated 78.2 mb/d, up 1 mb/d from June and 1.8 mb/d above a year earlier. Throughputs are set to fall steeply from August on weaker margins and heavy maintenance. Global runs average 77.2 mb/d in 3Q13, up 1.1 mb/d y-o-y, and 76.8 mb/d in 4Q13.
Source: IEA