The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to pose a significant risk to the global oil price forecast, with potential scenarios varying from increased sanctions to a complete reintroduction of Russian crude into the market.

Effective EU price cap enforcement would push down Russian oil benchmark Urals to $47.60 per barrel (pb) in Q3 2025 and lift the global oil benchmark Brent to around $80 pb in 2026, while a ceasefire could see Urals and Brent converging at $56–$59 pb as flows normalise and inefficiencies are removed. These outcomes represent feasible upside and downside scenarios but are unlikely to fully materialise.

Our baseline expectation is that new sanctions measures, including the EU’s lower price cap and US tariff threats exert downward pressure on the Russian oil price that will fall to $50bp by end-2025.

To date, Russian crude exports have remained resilient in volume terms but have been rerouted, with India now the largest buyer at steep discounts.
Source: Oxford Economics