A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world, including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.

Market in Brief

Yesterday EIA Weekly Stock report was mixed. Crude stocks fell much more than expected to -6.9 Mb, a third consecutive week of a big decline, aggregating to over 27 million barrels, the largest three week decline on record. However with built on other total stocks were almost flat, which was clearly bearish for cracks. The data showed US refineries consumed the highest amount of crude oil since August 2005 - a net input of 16.23 million barrels per day (bpd). US capacity to refine crude remains close to all-time highs reached in April. Last week, the capacity was at 17.814 million bpd, slightly under the peak of 17.819 million bpd. There is a chance the successive drawdown in US stocks, and expectations that the world's biggest oil consumer is on track for a steady economic recovery, will help push US oil to $110/bbl by the end of the month or during H2 2013. Crude finished higher with Brent closing at $108.61 and WTI at $106.48. Technically we continue to watch Brent hover around its 200 day, which has now begun to converge with some short term ma’s, and the bottom of a long term bear channel not too far above. Brent has some work to do, but it doesn’t feel like the bulls are relenting in their quest for a breakout higher. Yesterday Fed’s Bernanke’s testimony reiterated that they will be reactive to new data and if they come stronger they  expect to move quickly to reduce the Bond purchases. The Eur/Usd rose to session high at 1,3177 as Bernanke text was released along with weak US housing data. Note that B. Bernanke delivers today at 2:30pm (GMT) his Semi –Annual Policy Report to Senate. This morning crude is trading slightly down.

Fueloil Specifics

Bunker fuel oil prices rose marginally in the main NWE ports. Delivered 380cst product in Antwerp and Rotterdam was assessed app.$3/mt higher. Suppliers reported low demand and good product avails. Bunker prices slipped Wednesday, tracking lower Singapore high sulfur fuel oil swaps. The Singapore 380 CST HSFO August swap fell $1.25/mt day on day to $601.75/mt Wednesday. But crude values fell more Wednesday. In South Korea, supply was still ample although refiners were not so active in the spot market. Refiners offered delivered 380 CST grade at $615-618/mt. South Korean 380 CST price slipped $1.50/mt to $617.50/mt. Hong Kong was also well-supplied with bunker fuel and barges, but demand was not strong. Hong Kong 380 CST bunker fuel declined $1.50/mt to $615/mt, in line with Singapore HSFO. In Shanghai, where bunker deliveries were suspended during the last weekend, there were no longer barge congestion and bunker fuel stocks in Shanghai were more than enough. Shanghai 380 CST grade edged $0.50/mt $619.50/mt Wednesday, and was higher than South Korea's for the second consecutive trading day. This morning both markets are trading marginally down.

Settlement & Indications (mid values)

Product Yesterday's Values Forward Indications Product Change Last Dir. Aug Sep Oct Q413 Q114 2014 NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) 0,48 106,48 ↓ 105,70 104,31 102,82 101,41 97,97 95,00 ICE Brent Swap (1st month) 0,47 108,61 ↓ 108,02 107,38 106,80 106,20 104,45 102,01 ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) 4,00 923,75 ↑ 925,08 923,50 920,25 916,47 905,00 889,26 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm 6,75 603,25 ↓ 597,25 591,00 589,25 586,75 585,00 576,50 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med 8,75 602,75 ↓ 591,00 585,50 583,00 578,75 577,25 572,00 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE 5,25 602,25 ↓ 608,75 612,25 614,00 613,25 612,50 601,75 3% no. 6 USGC WB 0,99 91,75 ↓ 92,25 92,25 91,75 91,95 91,25 90,50 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore (0,25) 599,75 ↓ 607,50 609,00 609,75 610,50 607,75 601,00 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm 3,25 925,50 ↑ 926,25 925,25 921,25 917,25 907,25 890,25 Physical Rotterdam 380 CST 3,00 605,00 ↓ 602,50 596,25 593,50 591,50 589,25 580,75 Physical Singapore 380 CST 0,00 605,00 ↓ 612,75 614,25 615,00 614,25 611,00 604,25

Economy fundamentals this week

Fundamental Indicators Statistic Importance Date Time Period Consensus Last Actual Retail Sales High 15-Jul 8:30 AM Jun 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% Empire Manufacturing Medium 15-Jul 8:30 AM Jul 3.0 7.8 9.46 Business Inventories Medium 15-Jul 10:00 AM May -0.2% 0.3% 0.1% Core CPI High 16-Jul 8:30 AM Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Industrial Production Medium 16-Jul 9:15 AM Jun 0.5% 0.0.% 0.3% NAHB Housing Market Index Medium 16-Jul 10:00 AM Jul 49 52 57 Housing Starts Medium 17-Jul 8:30 AM Jun 925K 914K 863K Initial Claims Medium 18-Jul 8:30 AM 13-jul 345K 360K - Philadelphia Fed Medium 18-Jul 10:00 AM Jul 3.0 12.5 - Leading Indicators Medium 18-Jul 10:00 AM Jun 0.2% 0.1% -

Source: OW Risk Management