Crude burn—the direct use of crude oil in power plants and industrial facilities, primarily for electricity generation—has long been a staple in Saudi Arabia’s energy mix. The kingdom burns significant volumes of oil to meet domestic electricity demand, which hovers around 171 terawatt-hours (TWh). However, analysis from Rystad Energy shows the upcoming Jafurah shale gas field, set to start production in 2025 and the largest of its kind globally, could dramatically shift this dynamic. By tapping into unconventional gas, Saudi Arabia stands to displace up to 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude burn by 2030. The increased gas supply would not only curb domestic crude use but also free up more oil and refined products for export, strengthening the country’s position in global energy markets.
The Jafurah project is a key component of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which seeks to boost gas production by 60% from 2021 levels while diversifying the nation’s energy mix. Utilizing more efficient natural gas and renewable energy in power generation will also enable Saudi Arabia to reduce its dependence on crude oil. Planned to unfold in three phases, the project will see more than $100 billion in investment in the next decade, positioning Saudi Arabia as the world’s third-largest shale gas producer.
Strategically located near Aramco’s Uthmaniyah gas-processing plant, Jafurah benefits from logistical efficiencies, as its proximity reduces the need for costly long-distance pipelines. Uthmaniyah’s established infrastructure and expertise will be crucial in processing Jafurah’s output, including the separation of natural gas liquids (NGL), ethane, condensate and other byproducts, optimizing the field’s commercial value.
“Saudi Arabia is stepping up investment in natural gas as a cleaner, lower-carbon alternative to oil and coal. This strategic pivot, alongside the OPEC+ decision to cap Aramco’s oil production at 12 million barrels per day by 2027, is designed to support price stability while increasing domestic gas consumption. Output is projected to climb to 13 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) by 2030, setting the stage for a major expansion in gas supply. This will allow the nation to redirect more crude for export, reinforcing its influence in the global energy landscape. As the initiative advances, the success of this shift will depend on robust midstream infrastructure, downstream integration and deeper-zone drilling campaigns”, said Pankaj Srivastava, Senior Vice President, Commodities Markets – Oil.
Source: Rystad Energy