Dutch and British wholesale gas prices fell on Thursday morning amid forecasts of more wind power generation and a correction after hitting a three-week high the previous day over supply concerns.
The benchmark front-month contract TRNLTTFMc1 at the Dutch TTF hub was down 0.72 euro at 36.86 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) by 0952 GMT, LSEG data showed.
On Wednesday, the contract traded at up to 38.15 euros/MWh, its highest level since Sept. 3, according to LSEG’s data.
In the British market, the front-month contract TRGBNBPMc1 was 2.21 pence lower at 88.70 pence per therm, while the day-ahead TRGBNBPD1 contract was down 1.50 pence at 88.50 p/therm.
A price correction was likely given Wednesday’s gains, LSEG analyst Tomasz Marcin Kowalski in a morning note.
Meanwhile, gas demand for power generation is set to fall on Friday amid rising wind power output, with the effect partially offset by more demand for heating amid colder weather, he added.
However, “recent extensions and delays in Norwegian infrastructure are a bullish risk factor,” Kowalski said.
Norwegian gas supply to Europe and Britain was nominated at 267.3 million cubic metres (mcm) per day on Thursday morning, compared with 265 mcm/day on Wednesday, data from system operator Gassco showed.
Most of maintenance undertaken at Norwegian gas fields, processing plants and exit terminals ahead of winter is complete, but the last days have seen some small extensions and unplanned outages.
“Geopolitical tensions, particularly around Russian gas deliveries and Middle Eastern conflicts, continue to drive price volatility,” Rabobank Research said in a market note.
Still, the market could see some “downtime” before the start of winter, with storages remaining above the 90% November despite a few days of net withdrawals recorded during a recent first cold spell, they added.
Rabobank is expecting TTF gas prices to average 38 euros/MWh in the fourth quarter and 36-37 euros/MWh in winter 2025/2026, they said.
European storages are currently 93.9% full, Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed.
In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract CFI2Zc1 were down 0.64 euro at 64.55 euros per metric ton.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Nora Buli in Oslo; editing by Nina Chestney)