U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are expected to have fallen 2 million barrels during the reporting week ended August 29, according to a Platts analysis and survey of oil analysts.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly data at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT) Thursday. Both reports are delayed a day due to the U.S. Labor Day holiday on Monday.

Analysts expect U.S. refinery utilization rates to come off by 0.7 percentage point to 92.8% following a slew of planned and unplanned outages the week ended August 29. BP's 413,000 barrels per day (b/d) Whiting, Indiana, refinery shut a hydrotreater following a fire on August 27, Platts data shows.

Additionally, ExxonMobil shut a fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) at its 584,000 b/d Baytown, Texas, refinery the week ended August 29. The unit is expected to be down for several weeks. Also in Texas, Phillips 66 extended the downtime for an FCC at its 146,000 b/d Borger refinery until September 10.

"The Whiting issue will have its effect, and we might see the runs slow down as we finish up summer," Oil Outlooks president Carl Larry said, adding that should refineries continue to pull back from record-high runs, crude oil inventories would likely begin to pile up.

EIA data pegged U.S. refinery runs at 16.54 million b/d the week ended August 22, down from a record-high 16.63 million b/d the week ended July 11. But runs on the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) -- home to more than 50% of U.S. operable refinery capacity -- showed little signs of abating, pushing to a record high of 8.75 million b/d the week ended August 22.

Larry, however, does not expect any rally in imports. EIA data pegged U.S. imports at 7.63 million b/d the week ended August 22, more than 740,000 b/d below year-ago levels.

USGC refining margins reflect slack demand for imported grades. Cracking margins for imported Nigerian Brass River and Angolan Cabinda are below $8 per barrel on a 30-day moving average. By comparison, Louisiana Light Sweet margins are nearly double that.

GASOLINE STOCKS LIKELY FELL

U.S. gasoline stocks likely fell 1.6 million barrels the week ended August 29, in line with the EIA five-year average. Distillate stocks are expected to have fallen as well, down 1.2 million barrels.

While analysts were on the fence about Labor Day-centered demand for gasoline, strong agricultural demand likely helped eat into U.S. diesel stocks. Steady exports for both gasoline and diesel will have kept stockpiling to a minimum.

U.S. gasoline stocks were pegged at 212.3 million barrels the week ended August 22, EIA showed. This puts them nearly flat to the five-year average. But stocks on the U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC) -- home to the New York Harbor-delivered New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) RBOB contract -- are not as tight. At 57.55 million barrels, USAC stocks are more than 3% above the five-year average. USGC gasoline stocks at 75.12 million barrels are just over 1% above the five-year average.
Source: Platts