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Supply growth to pose risk for Nat Gas prices: Deutsche Bank

Thursday, 01 January 2015 | 00:00
With 2015 Natural gas supply growth likely to exceed the level needed to balance the market, this year’s storage deficit is likely to be eliminated by the end of Q1-15, according to the latest report by Deutsche Bank.Building surpluses over the balance of the year are likely to weigh on prices particularly in the summer, Deutsche Bank added.

As Continued strength in production growth poses the greatest risk for pricing in 2015 and Deutsche Bank lowers their price forecast to $3.75/mmBtu on expectations that supply will exceed requirements in a normal-weather scenario.
An extremely cold winter in 2013-14 ended with storage gas at the lowest level in both percentage terms and absolute terms since 2003. As in 2003, this was followed by a very strong injection season with 2,770 bcf (59% of working gas capacity) added, as compared with 2,491 bcf (61%) in 2003 when measured from the end of March to the first week in November.
This was facilitated by the strongest production growth rate (+3.1 bcf/d) of the last nine years apart from 2011. Of particular note is that production growth accelerated into the end of the year, despite the weakest pricing also occurring in Q4-14.

"On a year-on-year comparison we expect lower demand from normalised winter weather to be offset by growth in power utility generation demand and industrial demand," DB said.
Source: Deutsche Bank
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