Russia plans to keep February oil exports from its western sea ports little changed from January, but winter weather and refinery maintenance may lead to a revision of the schedule, two industry sources familiar with the plans told Reuters.

January oil loadings from Russia’s Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk ports are expected to be around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd).

A possible decline in refinery runs in February and weather-related loading delays from January may lead to higher exports next month, one of the sources said. He added that some Russian refineries plan to start maintenance works next month making more crude oil available for export.

At the same time recent U.S. sanctions on tankers involved in Russian oil shipments may add pressure on the Russian oil export market and slow down loadings, the traders said.

“We do not observe significant disruptions in loadings now, but we might face vessel shortage amid rising sanction risks and possible ice restrictions in Baltic,” a source in the Russian oil market said.

As of Monday, Russian Baltic ports had not imposed ice restrictions for tankers, allowing more vessels to load oil in the ports. During winter months Russia often limits access for vessels with a low ice class to its Baltic ports due to thick ice.

Recent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, including Ust-Luga terminal of Novatek, have also increased concerns about the stability of loadings, traders said.

Russian oil exports are also curbed by an OPEC+ cut under which the state has promised to deepen voluntary cuts of crude oil exports under the OPEC+ cooperation agreement in the first quarter of 2024 by 200,000 bpd to 500,000 bpd.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Sharon Singleton)