The BPA Statistical Dashboard is our monthly rundown of key statistics and indicators of port performance and the overall UK economy kindly prepared by Stephen Taylor of Port Centric Logistics and Partners.
Economic Data
UK GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in Quarter 2 2022, based on the first ONS estimate. In output terms, services fell by 0.4% in Q2 2022 with the largest negative contribution from human health and social work activities, reflecting a reduction in coronavirus (COVID-19) activities. There were positive contributions from consumer-facing services, such as other service activities (travel agencies and tour operators did particularly well as COVID-19 restrictions eased on the tourism industry), accommodation and food service activities , and arts, entertainment and recreation activities.
There was a 0.2% decrease in real household consumption in Q2 2022, offset by a positive contribution from net trade; however, ONS continues to advise caution because of recent changes in data collection affecting the EU trade flows.
Monthly estimates show that GDP fell by 0.6% in June 2022, following a downwardly revised 0.4% increase in May; the Platinum Jubilee and the move of the May bank holiday led to an additional working day in May 2022 and two fewer working days in June 2022, although this impacted on monthly GDP, there was little impact on the quarterly estimates.
Total imports of goods, excluding precious metals, decreased by £0.6 billion (1.1%) in June 2022 because of a £1.1 billion (4.1%) fall in imports from EU countries, while imports from non-EU countries increased by £0.6 billion (2.1%). Total exports of goods, excluding precious metals, fell by £2.7 billion (8.0%) in June 2022, driven by a £2.0 billion (11.9%) decrease in exports to non-EU countries, while exports to EU countries decreased by £0.7 billion (3.9%).
The large fall in exports to non-EU countries in June 2022 was primarily driven by lower exports of miscellaneous manufactures and chemicals, which both decreased by £0.7 billion.
Retail price inflation and its causes have been well documented in the national and international media. In July the CPI measure reached double-digits at +10.1%. The run rate for average weekly pay rises actually reduced slightly in June to 5.1%, from 6.8% in April and 6.2% in May.
Port Traffic Indicators
The finalised port traffic statistics for 2021 were published by DfT in July and were summarised in the July Dashboard commentary. In August DfT released updated RoRo statistics on international trade with the EU and international sea passenger statistics. New data on port traffic volumes in Q2 2022 are due to be published next month.
The international RoRo volumes in Q2 for RGV’s and unaccompanied trailers are summarised in rows 13 & 14 of the Dashboard. The high growth rates of accompanied RGV volumes in Q1 (+17%) has slackened in Q2 (+4.3%) but unaccompanied trailer unit growth rates increased from +10.5% in Q1 to +15.2% in Q2. All comparisons are with the equivalent quarter of 2021. These numbers include Channel Tunnel truck shuttle volumes which are separately reported in section 3 below.
International sea passenger numbers are updated in this Dashboard and the strong post-pandemic recovery trends continued. Compared to Q2 2021 passenger numbers on cross-Channel routes increased by 186%, but they remain 50% below 2019 pre-pandemic volume. Similarly the number of passengers travelling on Irish Sea routes (excluding NI) increased substantially (+273%) but also remain well below 2019 levels (-26%).
The data on cruise passenger numbers in 2021 have been released and not unexpectedly show a continuation of the sharp decline from pre-pandemic levels (row 19).
Selected Key Indicators
In the first half of 2022 unit volumes on Le Shuttle increased by 18.6% compared to the same period in 2021. However in comparison with pre-pandemic 2019 unit volumes, Channel Tunnel services are down by 20% for the Jan to June period. Data for July shows a performance largely unchanged from the same month in 2021.
Monthly construction output decreased 1.4% in volume terms in June 2022, following an upwardly revised 1.8% increase in May 2022, with both months affected by the timing of the Jubilee bank holiday; this is the first decrease since October 2021 (0.9%) following seven consecutive months of growth. The decrease in monthly construction output in June 2022 came from falls in both new work (2.0%) and repair and maintenance (0.2%). At the sector level, the main contributors to the decrease in June 2022 were private new housing and private commercial new work, which decreased 6.1% and 4.5%, respectively.
The level of construction output in June 2022 was 2.9% (£414 million) above the February 2020 pre- coronavirus pandemic level; repair and maintenance work was 12.6% (£626 million) above the February 2020 level while new work was 2.2% (£212 million) below its February 2020 level. Despite the monthly decrease, construction output increased 2.3% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022, with increases seen in both new work and repair and maintenance (3.3% and 0.8%, respectively).
Energy Sector Trends
Coal production in the three months to June 2022 fell to 190 thousand tonnes, 48 per cent lower compared to the same period a year earlier. Demand for coal remains muted due to generally declining demand from electricity generators, and UK production has been further affected by mine closures. In the three months to June 2022 imports of coal rose to 1.3 million tonnes, 29 per cent higher compared to the same period last year. Exports were 32 per cent lower compared to the same period last year.
Imports of LNG increased by 37 per cent in the three months to June 2022 compared to the same period in the previous year. The UK’s substantial LNG regasification infrastructure meant it could operate as a land-bridge for LNG largely from the US which more than trebled on the same time period last year. Qatar was the largest source of LNG imports in May and June, as US volumes were notably lower than they were in April. In addition, Peruvian imports increased in the last three months. The UK has not imported LNG from Russia since March 2022.
Indigenous production of primary oils was up 9.3 per cent in the three months to June 2022 compared to the same period in the previous year. Production last summer was affected by an extensive summer maintenance schedule and volumes have not increased significantly since then. Production is down 26 per cent on the three months to June 2019.
Refinery demand is growing to near pre-pandemic levels. In Q2 refinery receipts were up 6.6% compared to the same period in the previous year, and are now only 4.4 per cent below the three months to June 2019.
Imports and exports of petroleum products increased 23 and 26 per cent respectively, but imports remain down compared to pre-pandemic levels. Net imports were up 15 per cent in the same time period. Exports of crude have reached near record lows whilst imports of crude were up 4.3 per cent resulting in the highest net imports of crude in a quarter since 2016.
Bulk Trade Trends at UK ports
No changes or new data from July’s report.
Fish Landings at UK ports
The total tquantity of landings by UK vessels (tonnes) decreased in July 2022 compared to 2021, down 8 per cent. The value of landings in July 2022 (£64m) decreased compared 2021, down by 6 per cent.
Landings of species groups typically fluctuate over the year due to seasonality of UK stocks. Landings in July 2022 comprised mostly of Shellfish species (39 per cent). Shellfish species also comprised the majority of the value landed (55 per cent), this is because Shellfish (in particular Lobsters, crabs and Scallops) typically fetch a high price. However, when compared to July 2021 both quantity and the value of shellfish landings were down 16 per cent and 7 per cent respectively. Demersal species also contributed to a high proportion of the total landings in July 2022 (33 per cent) driven by landings of Haddock which is typically targetted at this time of year. High quota pelagic species (such as Mackerel) are typically targetted in the winter months therefore landings remained relatively low in July 2022.
The total quantity of landings into UK ports (by UK and foreign vessels) in July 2022 is down 5 per cent compared to 2021. The value landed also decreased by 5 per cent compared to 2021.
Source: British Ports Association