Fitch Ratings’ neutral sector outlook for global oil and gas is based on a balanced market with Brent crude oil prices forecast at USD70 per barrel, reflecting OPEC+’s large spare capacity and moderating demand growth. We expect companies to continue generating strong cash flows and maintain low leverage due to disciplined capital allocation and cost management strategies. We project upstream production to grow, contributing to stable credit metrics across the sector.

OPEC+’s high spare production capacity and its potential decision to loosen production curbs could negatively affect oil prices. Geopolitical developments, such as Middle East escalations or changes in international sanctions, may disrupt supply chains and affect sector stability. A deceleration in demand growth, particularly from weaker-than-expected Chinese demand, could also weigh on oil prices.

We expect ongoing investments in renewable energy and decarbonization efforts to progress gradually, without causing immediate disruptions to oil and gas sector fundamentals.

We expect most oil and gas companies to report strong cash flows in 2025 due to the supportive price environment and disciplined capital allocation. We project around 70% of companies in our global portfolio to generate positive free cash flow (FCF) after dividends, with leverage metrics remaining low.

The report, “Global Oil and Gas Outlook 2025,” is available at www.fitchratings.com or by clicking on the link above.
Source: Fitch Ratings