Growth in throughput at Chinese ports slowed in 3Q24 due to weaker exports to most markets and subdued domestic demand, and Fitch Ratings expects growth in 4Q24 to be muted.

Fitch expects limited cargo and container throughput growth in 4Q24 as the upfront loading effect fades. While exports may rise in 4Q24 due to last year’s low base, overseas demand may stay tepid. Domestic weaknesses weigh on China’s consumption and investment, and Donald Trump’s election as US president adds to downside risks. However, this may prompt China to implement a more aggressive stimulus package, offering some support.

China’s total cargo and foreign trade throughput growth slowed to 1% and 5% yoy in 3Q24, from 3% and 8% in 2Q24. Total container throughput grew by 6% yoy in 3Q24, compared with 10% and 7% in 1Q24 and 2Q24, due to sluggish external demand.

The value of exports rose by 5.5% yoy in 3Q24, benefiting from a low base in 3Q23. However, it was largely flat versus 2Q24. Exports to the US and EU continued to rebound, up 5% and 7.6% yoy, respectively. Export growth to ASEAN eased to 8.8% yoy in 3Q24 from 15% in 2Q24 and fell 7.1% qoq.

Both the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index and the China Containerized Freight Index peaked in July, then fell about 40% by the end of October. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) remained elevated, up 57% and 15% yoy in 3Q24. The BDI was stable qoq while the BDTI dropped by 19% qoq.
Source: Fitch Ratings