In 2024, liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) is estimated to have increased by 1.3 mb/d to average 53.2 mb/d. Most of the growth came from the US, with liquids production increasing by 0.8 mb/d, y-o-y, mostly from non-conventional NGLs and tight oil. The latter increased by 0.3 mb/d, mostly from the Permian Basin, supported by efficiency improvements in drilling and completion activities. Output in the Bakken rose by just 24 tb/d, y-o-y, while production in the Eagle Ford and Niobrara witnessed only marginal increases, y-o-y. Canadian liquids supply in 2024 rose by around 0.25 mb/d, y-o-y, on the back of oil sand project expansions and NGLs growth. Argentina and China also contributed to production growth last year. Supply declines were seen in a number of countries, with the UK leading the way

In 2024, the US oil rig count averaged 491, representing a drop of 58 rigs, y-o-y. However, upstream operators were able to achieve steady gains in drilling and completion efficiencies in the major shale oil basins. Efficiency gains are expected to continue to increase on a well basis in the short term, through drilling longer laterals, more efficient operations, reduced downtime and flattening production decline curves. On the investment front, capital spending for oil exploration and production (E&P) in non-DoC countries increased in 2024 by about $3 bn, y-o-y, to reach $299 bn. However, this spending is expected to decline by around 5%, y-o-y, in 2025 and further by about 2% in 2026 to around $277 bn. In the US, upstream E&P liquids investment in 2024 is estimated to have dropped by 8%, y-o-y, to about $125 bn. It is expected to drop further by around 9% and 7%, y-o-y, in 2025 and 2026, respectively. The potential impact on production levels in 2025 and 2026 of the decline in upstream E&P oil investments will constitute a challenge, despite the industry’s continued focus on efficiency and productivity improvements.

With this, non-DoC liquids supply is expected to grow by 0.8 mb/d in 2025 to average 54.0 mb/d. Liquids output in the OECD (excluding Mexico) is expected to increase by 0.5 mb/d, y-o-y, mainly on the back of production increases in the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway. US crude oil and condensate production is anticipated to expand by 130 tb/d, y-o-y, with NGLs and biofuels expected to rise by a combined around 200 tb/d. Canada’s oil production, particularly from oil sands assets, is forecast to grow by about 120 tb/d, y-o-y. North Sea production growth is projected at around 50 tb/d, y-o-y. In the non-OECD (excluding DoC countries), output is expected to rise by around 260 tb/d, y-o-y. Latin America is set to be the primary contributor to liquids supply growth, with output anticipated to increase by about 250 tb/d, y-o-y. This is mainly due to several offshore ramp-ups and start-ups in key countries, as well as additional tight oil production in Argentina.

In 2026, non-DoC liquids supply is forecast to grow by 0.8 mb/d to average 54.8 mb/d. OECD liquids production (excluding Mexico) is expected to increase by 0.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the US and Canada seeing growth of around 280 tb/d and 110 tb/d, respectively. US crude and condensate output is expected to rise by just 44 tb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, while NGLs production is forecast to rise by 190 tb/d, since it is expected that demand for natural gas remains strong in 2026. Similar to 2025, Latin America is forecast to be the main non-OECD growth driver, accounting for more than 95% of the region’s liquids output growth in 2026. These forecasts are expected to face some uncertainties, particularly given the ongoing macroeconomic developments across regions.
Source: OPEC