U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Tuesday on forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
That price decline came despite extreme cold in some parts of the country this week that is freezing oil and gas wells and cutting daily output, and record high gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.
Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.3 cents, or 1.7%, to $3.662 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:16 a.m. EST (1316 GMT).
On Friday before the U.S. Presidents Day holiday weekend, the contract closed at its highest since January 24.
With prices up about 13% last week, speculators boosted their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchange for the ninth time in the past 10 weeks to their highest since August 2021, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders report.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023.
But with the return of extreme cold that is again freezing wells in some parts of the country, daily output was on track to drop by around 3.5 bcfd over the last 12 days to a preliminary three-week low of 103.2 bcfd on Monday.
That compares with a daily record high of 106.7 bcfd on February 6. Analysts noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through February 22 before switching to near normal levels from February 23-March 5.
With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 146.4 bcfd this week to 129.9 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG’s outlook on Friday.
The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.4 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas hit a record 16.0 bcfd on Monday, topping the prior all-time daily high of 15.8 bcfd on January 18.
That LNG daily feedgas record came as flows to Venture Global’s 2.6-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana hit a fresh high of 1.4 bcfd on Sunday.
The United States became the world’s biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading at a one-month low of around $14 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) benchmark in Europe on the possibility Russian pipeline gas may start to flow to Europe again as the U.S. and Russia talk about ending the war in Ukraine.
In Asia, meanwhile, gas prices at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) benchmark edged up to a nine-week high.
Source: Reuters