A bunker fuel and oil report, detailing the day per day trading patterns and prices in the market.The report is prepared from OW Risk Management and covers all major bunker fuel oil markets around the world, including all major ports, ranging from Singapore to Rotterdam.

Market in Brief

Crude prices closed the month lower yesterday. The May Brent futures settled at $107.76/bbl, down -$0.31 and WTI slipped -$0.09 to $101.58/bbl.  The Russians pulled out some troops from the Ukrainian border and said again that they had no view to enter East Ukraine; these news took out some of the Oil risk premium. Yesterday a dovish Yellen propped the market in the morning to loose steam in the European closing on some mixed data. This morning the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI showed a 48.0 reading slightly below the 48.1 survey expectation. A reading of below 50 suggests a slowdown in manufacturing growth but the other  official data, the Chinese manufacturing PMI data was slightly better 50.3 vs 50.2 expected. These figures show that the Chinese economy has stabilized overall and could ease pressure on the government to prop up growth.  This morning, crude prices are trading down.

Fueloil Specifics

The Northwest European bunker fuel oil markets opened the week with slightly lower prices and limited demand. Delivered 380cst product both in Rotterdam and Antwerp was assessed app.$2/mt down. Suppliers reported improving lsfo avails, however premiums for prompt deliveries remained supported by delays at loading installations. The Singapore fuel oil prices fell between $2.5 and $1.0 during the Asian Platts window yesterday. Market fundamentals are looking weak on ample supply amidst a sluggish demand. The delivered bunker premiums softened to around $2.0 to $4.0 above cargo prices. This morning both markets are trading slightly higher.

Settlement & Indications (mid values)

Product Yesterday's Values   Forward Indications Product Change Last Dir. Apr May Jun Q314 Q414 Q115 NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month) (0,09) 101,58 ↓ 101,05 100,23 98,36 100,21 97,51 94,88 ICE Brent Swap (1st month) (0,31) 107,76 ↓ 107,58 107,38 107,08 106,56 104,79 103,37 ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month) (8,75) 894,00 ↑ 897,92 898,58 898,58 898,08 892,75 - 3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm (4,25) 575,25 ↑ 573,25 572,00 571,25 570,00 566,25 564,75 3.5% Cargoes FOB Med (7,00) 565,75 ↑ 568,75 569,25 568,50 567,25 563,50 562,50 1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE 1,75 634,75 ↑ 623,50 611,75 607,75 604,75 595,00 584,00 3% no. 6 USGC WB (0,62) 89,03 ↓ 89,23 89,25 89,53 89,11 88,57 88,17 380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore (1,25) 593,50 ↑ 590,50 591,00 591,00 590,75 589,25 587,75 0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm (8,25) 892,25 ↑ 899,25 900,25 900,25 898,25 894,25 - Physical Rotterdam 380 CST (2,00) 580,00 ↑ 578,50 577,25 576,50 575,25 571,50 570,00 Physical Singapore 380 CST (1,50) 598,00 ↑ 595,75 596,25 596,25 596,00 594,50 593,00

Focus of the day: ARA

This week has seen slow demand while crude was range trading. However, the high sulphur did gain quite some strength and even flipped the forward curve into backwardation halfway. During the day ex-wharf levels were significantly above paper. Unlike previous weeks, the ex-wharf levels were actually traded during the window, leaving a series of high prints on the high sulphur last week, only to come off yesterday. With not too many players offering at the moment, one should remain cautious on high sulphur supplies. We therefore advise to procure well in advance. It’s no longer stormy weather on the low sulphur front, however it stays windy with the premiums continuing to hover in the mid sixties region. No change foreseen on the short term. Gasoil discounts are dissolving further, leaving us to pay 8-10 dollars more for DMA than previous week. Still it comes at a bargain, considering the ex-wharf prices. Notification periods for the different grades; five days for high sulphur enquiries and five working days for low sulphur enquiries.

Economy fundamentals this week

Fundamental Indicators Statistic Importance Date Time Period Consensus Last Actual Chicago PMI Medium 31-Mar 9:45 AM Mar 60.0 59.8 55.9 ISM Index High 1-Apr 10:00 AM Mar 54.2 53.2 - ADP Employment Change Medium 2-Apr 8:15 AM Mar 215K 139K - Factory Orders Medium 2-Apr 10:00 AM Feb 1.1% -0.7% - Initial Claims Medium 3-Apr 8:30 AM 29-mar 320K 311K - Trade Balance Medium 3-Apr 8:30 AM Feb -$40.5B -$39.1B - ISM Services High 3-Apr 10:00 AM Mar 53.0 51.6 - Nonfarm Payrolls High 4-Apr 8:30 AM Mar 185K 175K - Unemployment Rate High 4-Apr 8:30 AM Mar 6.6% 6.7% -

Source: OW Risk Management