Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were little changed on Friday morning as warmer temperatures curbed demand and supply from Norway rose.

The benchmark Dutch front-month contract at the TTF hub (TRNLTTFMc1) was down 0.27 euro at 36.08 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) or $11.99/mmBtu, by 0800 GMT, LSEG data showed.

The Dutch July contract (TRNLTTFMc2) was up 0.10 euro at 36.45 euros/MWh.

The British day-ahead contract (TRGBNBBD1) was up 0.20 pence at 86.00 p/therm.

Analysts at LSEG said local distribution zone demand, which is primarily used for heating, is expected to drop 492 gigawatt hours/day (GWh/d) for north-west Europe due to warmer temperatures.

“Total Norwegian exports rose by 58 million cubic metres/day, easing supply concerns and removing the bullish risk premium priced earlier in the week,” LSEG analyst Oleh Skrynyk said in a daily research note.

“We expect prices to trade sideways, as the bearish supply fundamentals are largely priced in,” Skrynyk said.

Prices, however, remain supported by Europe’s need to replenish is gas stores which are currently 45% full, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed.

“We are still bullish on TTF balance-2025 prices given the difficulty we see Europe facing in refilling its storage to an adequate level by end-October, but we acknowledge this view is reliant on China returning to import growth in H2 25,” analysts at Energy Aspects said.

The market is also watching for any news on a possible ceasefire in Ukraine or resumption of some Russian gas flows to Europe.

“We still think Russian gas is unlikely to return via pipeline to Europe and that is anyway predicated on a Russia–Ukraine peace deal, which still looks some way off,” Energy Aspects analysts said.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract (CFI2Zc1) was up 0.40 euro at 72.17 euros a metric ton.
Source: Reuters