Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude oil forecast for this year and the next, as the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump’s new administration remain uncertain.

The investment bank increased its average Brent forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to $78 and $73 per barrel (bbl), up from $76 and $71 respectively, and it expects crude to hit $80 peak in April-May 2025, according to a note dated Thursday.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for OECD commercial stocks in 2025-2026 due to lower-than-expected oil supplies from non-OPEC countries, excluding the U.S., which led to a decrease in the current OECD stock estimate by 48 million barrels per day.

Goldman Sachs also mentioned that Brent could temporarily rise to $93 a barrel if sanctioned supply falls by 1 million barrels per day continuously for Iran and temporarily for Russia.

The bank indicated that Brent could temporarily surge to $93 a barrel if sanctioned supply from Iran falls by 1 million barrels per day continuously and Russia temporarily.

This comes after former U.S. President Joe Biden earlier this month imposed a wide-ranging package of sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas revenues.

However, Goldman Sachs warned that Brent prices could drop to the low $60s in 2026 under a scenario of a 10% universal tariff, supported by Trump’s commitment to impose 10% tariffs on all U.S. imports.

On Thursday, Trump stated he would soon decide whether to exclude Canadian and Mexican oil imports from the 25% tariffs he has vowed to impose on the countries’ products on Saturday.

On Friday, Brent crude prices were trading around $76.7 a barrel.
Source: Reuters