In just three years, the European diesel trade map has been redrawn from short-haul Russian supply to long-haul dependence on distant exporters. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the EU’s February 2023 embargo on Russian oil products forced an abrupt rewriting of the trade and shipping logistics that had underpinned Europe’s fuel market for decades.
Prior to the invasion, nearly half of Europe’s diesel supply came from Russia, supplemented by flows from the Middle East, India and the US. In 2022, Europe imported 29.9 million mt of Russian diesel; by 2024, that had collapsed to just 2.9 million, cutting Russia’s share from almost 50% to just 5%.
The shift ruptured established shipping patterns. What had once been a three- to seven-day Handysize voyage from Russia’s Baltic and Black Sea terminals to Northwest Europe or the Mediterranean is now a three- to six-week Long Range tanker journey from the Persian Gulf or India, with some cargoes taking up to 40 days via the Cape of Good Hope. The result is a costlier, more fragile supply chain, where freight rates, chokepoints and geopolitical risks weigh more heavily on Europe’s delivered diesel price than ever before.
The European price response was dramatic. The average CIF NWE 10ppmS ULSD cargo assessment hovering around $750/mt in January 2022 surged to an unprecedented $1,463/mt by June, data from Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, showed.
Although prices have since eased, volatility has become entrenched. French strikes, successive EU sanctions, attacks by Houthi militants in the Red Sea and heightened Middle Eastern tensions all triggered sharp spikes, underscoring the vulnerability of Europe’s stretched supply chains.
“The markets had some sort of working mechanism some years ago before all this happened. There was some sort of predictability, you knew the fundamentals, how they influence each other. But now there’s this unpredictable element coming from the geopolitical space, and this is making things quite chaotic,” said one European diesel trader.
Middle East takes the lead
The Middle East has emerged as the cornerstone of Europe’s post-Russia diesel map. The region’s exports to the continent rose from 18.1 million mt in 2022 to 22.9 million in 2024, effectively replacing Russia as Europe’s top supplier.
New refining capacity in the Gulf underpinned the surge, while Saudi Aramco took on a higher profile in 2025, offering its first-ever diesel cargo in the Northwest European Platts Market on Close assessment process in July.
The US and India have become the next two largest suppliers, shipping 16.5 million mt and 7.1 million mt, respectively, in 2024. India’s growing export surplus, driven by new and expanded refining capacity, has become increasingly pivotal.
However, these gains have come at a cost. Longer voyages and constrained product tanker availability have kept European prices structurally elevated. Freight spikes now ripple quickly into wholesale and retail markets.
The escalation of the Houthi shipping attacks in the Red Sea in late 2023 forced yet another reshaping of flows. Many Gulf and Indian cargoes were rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, extending average voyage times to 38 days. Each additional week at sea amplified Europe’s exposure to freight spikes, weather disruptions and geopolitical shocks.
“We continue to see a lot of vessels rerouting around the Cape which is adding a huge amount of pressure to the supply logistics from the East,” said a second trader.
Russia finds new homes
Meanwhile, having been shut out of Europe, Russian diesel volumes have had to find new markets. Turkey has become the single largest buyer, followed by Brazil, Africa and, to a lesser extent, the Middle East.
Increased Russian flows to Brazil have displaced traditional US supply, freeing it up for export to Europe instead.
Equally, Russian diesel imports into Turkey have been absorbed domestically, enabling Turkish refiners to export more of their own production into the Mediterranean and Black Sea.
Ukraine, once dependent on direct Russian supply, has pivoted to the Mediterranean barrels delivered via Romania, which has become the largest diesel importer in the Med/Black Sea region.
Romania is currently “one of, if not the most actively traded CIF market in the Med for handy lots with significant import volumes,” said a third trader.
Fragile outlook
Nevertheless, the European diesel market remains fragile. The EU’s 18th sanctions package, adopted in mid-2025, will from 2026 ban imports of refined products made from Russian crude, in an effort to close the “back door” flows via third countries. The move directly targets India, Turkey and China, which have become major buyers of Russian crude and exporters of diesel to Europe.
Commodity Insights estimates the measure could cut off as much as 250,000 b/d of diesel supply to Europe.
For a market already running structurally short and hence chronically dependent on this supply, the implications are profound. European diesel stockpiles in 2025 have already tracked consistently below their five-year average during summer months — the period when inventories would typically build ahead of an uptick in autumn demand.
If Europe loses access to Indian, Turkish and Chinese barrels, its reliance on Gulf exporters will harden, leaving the continent more exposed to long voyages, volatile freight rates and Middle Eastern instability. The new sanctions may succeed in driving Russian crude further from Europe’s fuel system but may risk embedding higher costs into the continent’s energy balance.
“I don’t know how Europe has made this decision,” said another European diesel trader, flagging potential ripple effects for the Eurozone economy. “Eventually, it will impact European inflation only.”
Source: Platts