British and Dutch wholesale gas prices were mixed on Monday as warm weather, high level of inventories and stable imports put pressure on prices, while uncertainty over strikes in France lent some support.
The front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub fell by 0.60 euros to 42.55 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) by 0828 GMT, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.
The British day-ahead price was up 4.00 pence at 106.00 pence per therm, and the contract for immediate delivery was up 8.50 pence at 106.00 pence per therm.
“Mild winter weather, seasonally high inventories, comfortable supply levels and a loss of Russian risk premia are common factors behind the recent price declines,” said analysts at Fitch Solutions.
Refinitiv analyst Tomasz Marcin Kowalski said among the bearish factors was the latest weather forecast that was slightly warmer than the previous one, and was expected to reduce British local distribution zone (LDZ) gas demand, which is primarily used for heating.
“On the bullish side, strikes in France over retirement reform remain the biggest risk factor, which could have the effect of extending the shutdown of LNG terminals and reducing nuclear capacity,” he added.
The French energy sector has been caught up in nationwide protests over government plans to raise retirement age. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals have been blocked, halting imports at three sites.
Analysts at Engie EnergyScan also said “prices remain in their slightly bearish equilibrium… The strikes in France threaten this equilibrium, but amid comfortable fundamentals, they failed to trigger a trend reversal.”
European gas storage sites were around 56% full, the latest data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed.
In Britain, peak wind generation was expected at around 6.5 gigawatts (GW) on Monday, but was expected to increase to almost 16 GW on Tuesday, out of a total metered capacity of more than 22 GW, Elexon data showed.
In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract rose by 0.73 euros to 88.38 euros a tonne.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, Editing by Susanna Twidale)